Weather Connection

Now that it is 'meteorological spring,' the NWS has put out the climate summaries for the winter season of December - February:

..THE GRAND RAPIDS MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE SEASON, FROM   
12/1/2009 TO 2/28/2010...  
  
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000  
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1892 TO 2010  
  
WEATHER         OBSERVED          NORMAL  DEPART  LAST YEAR'S           
                 VALUE   DATE(S)  VALUE   FROM    VALUE  DATE(S)        
                                          NORMAL                         
............................................................  
  
TEMPERATURE (F)  
RECORD  
 HIGH              69   12/05/2001                                      
                        02/11/1999                                      
 LOW              -24   02/14/1899                                      
                        02/13/1899                                      
HIGHEST            49   01/24        53      -4       61  02/10         
                        12/02                                           
                        12/01                                           
LOWEST              4   01/30        -6      10       -8  01/17         
                                                          01/15         
AVG. MAXIMUM     31.7              31.9    -0.2     31.1                
AVG. MINIMUM     21.7              18.1     3.6     16.5                
MEAN             26.7              25.0     1.7     23.8                
DAYS MAX >= 90      0               0.0     0.0        0                
DAYS MAX <= 32     55              46.8     8.2       60                
DAYS MIN <= 32     83              82.4     0.6       85                
DAYS MIN <= 0       0               7.4    -7.4        7                
  
PRECIPITATION (INCHES)  
RECORD  
 MAXIMUM        13.78   1898                                            
 MINIMUM         2.08   1987                                            
TOTALS           5.64              6.27   -0.63    11.32                
DAILY AVG.       0.06              0.07   -0.01     0.13                
DAYS >= .01        43              44.1    -1.1       56                
DAYS >= .10        19              17.2     1.8       26                
DAYS >= .50         2               2.6    -0.6        6                
DAYS >= 1.00        0               0.9    -0.9        2                
GREATEST  
 24 HR. TOTAL    0.56   12/09 TO 12/09                                  
  
SNOWFALL (INCHES)  
RECORDS  
 TOTAL           94.9   2008                                            
TOTALS           69.5              52.1    17.4     94.5                
SINCE 7/1        70.2                                                   
SNOWDEPTH AVG.      4                 3       1        5                
DAYS >= 1.0        19              14.9     4.1                         
GREATEST  
 SNOW DEPTH        11   12/11                         17  12/24         
 24 HR TOTAL      9.5   02/09 TO 02/10                                  
  
DEGREE_DAYS  
HEATING TOTAL    3424              3599    -175     3695                
 SINCE 7/1       4692              5056    -364     5005                
COOLING TOTAL       0                 0       0        0                
 SINCE 1/1          0                 0       0        0                
  
FREEZE DATES  
EARLIEST                        10/13                                   
LATEST                          05/02                                    
.............................................................  
  
WIND (MPH)  
AVERAGE WIND SPEED              9.5  
HIGHEST WIND SPEED/DIRECTION    32/050    DATE  02/05  
HIGHEST GUST SPEED/DIRECTION    44/050    DATE  02/05  
  
SKY COVER  
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE (PERCENT)   19  
  
NUMBER OF DAYS FAIR            4  
NUMBER OF DAYS PC             17  
NUMBER OF DAYS CLOUDY         69  
  
AVERAGE RH (PERCENT)     73  
  
WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMBER OF DAYS WITH   
THUNDERSTORM              1     MIXED PRECIP               2  
HEAVY RAIN                0     RAIN                       2  
LIGHT RAIN                8     FREEZING RAIN              2  
LT FREEZING RAIN         11     HAIL                       1  
HEAVY SNOW                8     SNOW                      17  
LIGHT SNOW               57     SLEET                      2  
FOG                      51     FOG W/VIS <= 1/4 MILE      9  
HAZE                     52                                             
                                                                      
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                        
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                  
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                         
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                            

Now that meteorological spring has arrived, the NWS has put out the summaries for
West Michigan for the winter season of December-February.

...THE MUSKEGON MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE SEASON, FROM   
12/1/2009 TO 2/28/2010...  
  
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000  
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1895 TO 2010  
  
WEATHER         OBSERVED          NORMAL  DEPART  LAST YEAR'S           
                 VALUE   DATE(S)  VALUE   FROM    VALUE  DATE(S)        
                                          NORMAL                         
............................................................  
  
TEMPERATURE (F)  
RECORD  
 HIGH              67   02/11/1999                                      
 LOW              -30   02/11/1899                                      
HIGHEST            50   12/01        52      -2       61  12/27         
LOWEST              2   01/30                 3       -4  01/20         
AVG. MAXIMUM     31.8              32.3    -0.5     31.0                
AVG. MINIMUM     22.2              19.3     2.9     18.0                
MEAN             27.0              25.8     1.2     24.5                
DAYS MAX >= 90      0               0.0     0.0        0                
DAYS MAX <= 32     53              44.4     8.6       56                
DAYS MIN <= 32     84              80.9     3.1       86                
DAYS MIN <= 0       0               3.8    -3.8        5                
  
PRECIPITATION (INCHES)  
RECORD  
 MAXIMUM        13.42   2009                                            
 MINIMUM         1.38   2003                                            
TOTALS           6.36              6.44   -0.08    13.42                
DAILY AVG.       0.07              0.07    0.00     0.15                
DAYS >= .01        43              46.5    -3.5       58                
DAYS >= .10        20              25.1    -5.1       29                
DAYS >= .50         2               2.3    -0.3        7                
DAYS >= 1.00        0               0.6    -0.6        2                
GREATEST  
 24 HR. TOTAL    0.69   12/09 TO 12/09                                  
  
SNOWFALL (INCHES)  
RECORDS  
 TOTAL          140.6   1977                                            
TOTALS           73.2              82.0    -8.8    133.0                
SINCE 7/1        73.2                                                   
SNOWDEPTH AVG.      5                 5       0        7                
DAYS >= 1.0        19              22.0    -3.0                         
GREATEST  
 SNOW DEPTH        12   12/28                         22  01/18         
                        12/27                             12/24         
 24 HR TOTAL      8.8   12/26 TO 12/26                                  
  
DEGREE_DAYS  
HEATING TOTAL    3396              3529    -133     3635                
 SINCE 7/1       4705              4999    -294     4975                
COOLING TOTAL       0                 0       0        0                
 SINCE 1/1          0                 0       0        0                
  
FREEZE DATES  
EARLIEST                        10/14                                   
LATEST                          05/04                                    
.............................................................  
  
WIND (MPH)  
AVERAGE WIND SPEED              9.2  
HIGHEST WIND SPEED/DIRECTION    32/220    DATE  01/10  
HIGHEST GUST SPEED/DIRECTION    45/260    DATE  12/10  
  
SKY COVER  
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE (PERCENT)   MM                                        
  
NUMBER OF DAYS FAIR            6  
NUMBER OF DAYS PC             12  
NUMBER OF DAYS CLOUDY         72  
  
AVERAGE RH (PERCENT)     76  
  
WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMBER OF DAYS WITH   
THUNDERSTORM              0     MIXED PRECIP               2  
HEAVY RAIN                0     RAIN                       2  
LIGHT RAIN                9     FREEZING RAIN              0  
LT FREEZING RAIN          4     HAIL                       0  
HEAVY SNOW                5     SNOW                      18  
LIGHT SNOW               60     SLEET                      1  
FOG                      54     FOG W/VIS <= 1/4 MILE      9  
HAZE                     26                                             
                                                                      
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                        
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                  
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                         
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                            

Boy, has it been nice to see so much sun in the last couple of days!

Grand Rapids officially received 1168 minutes of sun (19 hours, 28 minutes) in the first two days of the month.  That's just a shade (pun intended) more than the 1159 minutes that we got in the previous TEN days, February 19-28.  And it's way more than the 894 minutes (14 hours, 54 minutes) that G.R. picked up in nearly a three WEEK stretch at the end of December (13 - 31).

Based on the last two days and the current forecast, we could pretty easily see more sunshine in the first six days of March than in the entire month of Feburary.

Here's a link to the page with the local climate data if you're interested in doing more research.

What do sunny days with mild afternoon temperatures above freezing alternating between clear, chilly nights mean?  The beginning of Sugar Bush!  This week's weather will be perfect for the beginning of maple syrup production.  It all starts by having the appropriate weather to get the tree sap flowing.  We are gaining nearly three minutes of daylight each day now.  Combine that with sunny, mild days and clear, cold nights and you have great weather to start tapping the maple trees for sap.  It takes just over 40 gallons of collected sap to be boiled down and reduced to a gallon of amber gold, pure maple syrup.  Look for area producers to have the first batch of maple syrup for the 2010 season ready before the end of this month.  Now all you need is some homemade pancakes, fried potatoes, and bacon or sauage links to celebrate this annual rite of spring!   

 

The month of March came in like a lamb across West Michigan on Monday afternoon with sunshine and above freezing temperaturers in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees.  In fact the high hit 41 degrees in Grand Rapids which was only the third time this year the temperature has reached 40 or better.  Furthermore, it was the second warmerest day we've seen so far this year next to the rainy 49 degrees that occurred on January 24.  You can expect quiet, late winter weather this week with a gradual warming trend over the weekend.  We should see plenty of sunshine on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as daytime highs rise from the mid 30s on Wednesday to lower 40s by Friday.  Nighttime lows will be chilly over the next few nights as skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy with light and variable winds.  Some locations in the countryside away from the cities could see lows briefly dip into teens.  Otherwise a developing storm system later in the weekend will likely pull warmer air northward into Lower Michigan.  Temperatures will warm into the 40s over the upcoming weekend with an increasing chance of some light rain or drizzle along with some areas of fog Saturday night into Sunday.  

It's still February, but it's never too early to think about severe weather season.  Kent County's Skywarn training session is at 7:00 PM on Thursday, February 25th.  It's at Grandville Middle School.  Preregistration has closed, but you may still register when you arrive.

Here's the link to the rest of the training sessions around West Michigan:
Link to NWS Skywarn Training schedule

Here is the Interactive Alert Map for West Michigan for Wednesday.

In talking to the National Weather Service this morning, they issued the Lake Effect Snow Warning because the snow was initially heaviest overnight for northern sections of the lakeshore.  However, even though the highest totals will be along the lakeshore, that doesn't really tell the whole story today.

This is far from a typical lake-effect setup... winds will be generally light and shifty during the day as an area of low pressure accompanied by a strong upper-level disturbance drops along the Lake Michigan shoreline during the day.  As such, we won't see bands blowing in from the lake as you would normally expect of lake-effect snow.

Instead, bands of snow will rotate around that low, even into inland portions of West Michigan.  Still, with a bit of help from the lake, the heaviest bursts will likely come along the shoreline.  But at pretty much any time, we're liable to see a heavier band of snow develop with rates of up to 1" an hour and visibilities of 1/2 mile or less.

Here are some of the most recent computer model forecasts:

10:00 AM Wednesday



3:00 PM Wednesday


Snow Accumulation (light blue = 2-4")




Send us your reports and photos - weather@fox17online.com!

Snowfall Map courtesy of the Grand Rapids National Weather Service Forecast Office

A modest winter storm brought moderate to heavy snow Sunday night into Monday morning across the southeastern third of Lower Michigan mainly from the Grand Rapids area south and eastward to and along the Interstate 94 corridor from Paw Paw and Kalamazoo, through Battle Creek and Jackson.  Grand Rapids set a new daily snowfall record of 4.9 inches for February 22 which beat the old record of 4.8 inches set in 1937.

My last entry outlined how much snow I thought we'd see. This entry will show our computer forecast model output and what it thinks will happen over the duration of this event. So below you'll notice a map of the Great Lakes. Areas in light blue indicate about 2"-4" of snow accumulation. Purple areas are about 4"-6", while dark blue colors indicate 6"-8'. There are a couple of spots of a darker blue south and east of Grand Rapids, which would indicate some isolated locations picking up 8"-10". There are a handful of forecast models we consult everyday, but many times these models do not agree. Our forecast model below is actually a bit of an outlier this time. It's showing the least amount of snow out of all the models, especially along the Michigan/Indiana border as freezing rain and rain may mix in there and keep the totals down a bit. Again, most areas in West Michigan will likely see 5"-8" with some isolated 8"-10" possible.

Last week Tuesday into Wednesday we had a pretty good snowfall of around 9" in Grand Rapids. A similar situation is shaping up again this week. I don't see the accumulations as heavy and widespread, but this will certainly be a noteworthy event. A developing low pressure system that originally started in Texas is drawing up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. That warm, moist air will rise over the several hundred mile treck up to Michigan. Long story short, we'll squeeze plenty of precipitation out of this system for a general 5"-8" across our area. One of the biggest differences you'll notice about this system is the wetter snow due the high moisture content. The last snowfall was much more light, fluffy, and powdery. With temperatures around 30 degrees, I expect about a 10:1 or 12:1 snow to water ratio instead of the 18:1 we saw last week. That means excellent packing snow for the kids making snowmen and having snowball fights.

Below is a graphic I constructed based on several computer forecast models. I believe areas in light blue will pick up about 5"-8" with some isolated 8"-10" amounts possible south and east of Grand Rapids. Most of those counties are under a Winter Storm Warning through Monday afternoon. Lighter amounts of snow will occur south of I94 to the Michigan/Indiana border as I believe some freezing rain and rain may mix in at times and keep snow totals down to around 3"-6" there. Muskegon, Oceana, Newaygo, and Mecosta counties are under Winter Weather Advisories and I anticipate about 3"-6" in those areas. Obviously, any deviation in the track of the low can make all the difference in the world, but that's the latest as of Sunday evening.