Here are the updated outlook and probability forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center (click for larger version):
There's a strong indication for a severe weather outbreak across Illinois and Missori tomorrow into tomorrow night. Notice that we are on the fringe of the slight risk area. I'm not all that concerned about widespread severe weather around our area, as most of the instability will stay south of West Michigan. Timing should also work in our favor, as the main line of storms may not roll in until after sunset. Still, this system has strong support from a dynamic (wind) standpoint, so there will likely be at least some strong to marginally severe storms along with the cold front.
The biggest question with this system isn't the storms with the cold front, but the development of an MCS (large complex of storms) tonight into early tomorrow. Current forecast models keep most of that activity south of us, but it's certainly possible that some of those weakening storms may make it into West Michigan during the daytime.
The biggest question with this system isn't the storms with the cold front, but the development of an MCS (large complex of storms) tonight into early tomorrow. Current forecast models keep most of that activity south of us, but it's certainly possible that some of those weakening storms may make it into West Michigan during the daytime.
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