We're keeping an eye on a cold front that will make it to West Michigan late Wednesday, as it carries a threat of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a Moderate Risk for parts of the Midwest with a 45% probability of severe weather through parts of Illinois and Missouri. That level of confidence in an outbreak by the SPC is not very common three days in advance.
Temperatures should climb into the low 70s Wednesday afternoon, with windy conditions out of the south and southwest ahead of the front. It's a very dynamic system, with fairly strong winds both at the surface and aloft. The big question for the day is how much instability will develop... current forecast models bring some showers/storms into the area early in the day, which would possibly keep things from getting out of control. That's a pretty typical situation for West Michigan -- a lot will depend on how much of a break there is between the first batch of rain and the main line of storms along the cold front. Also, if the timing of the main line of storms gets pushed back to late Wednesday night, it could keep the severe weather threat down as well.
I suspect that a combination of both of these things will happen -- often, when we're on the northern fringe of the slight risk area, the activity further south keeps some of the warmth and moisture from getting up into Michigan, and we miss out on the worst storms. Still, we'll continue to watch the forecast trends into Wednesday.
Temperatures should climb into the low 70s Wednesday afternoon, with windy conditions out of the south and southwest ahead of the front. It's a very dynamic system, with fairly strong winds both at the surface and aloft. The big question for the day is how much instability will develop... current forecast models bring some showers/storms into the area early in the day, which would possibly keep things from getting out of control. That's a pretty typical situation for West Michigan -- a lot will depend on how much of a break there is between the first batch of rain and the main line of storms along the cold front. Also, if the timing of the main line of storms gets pushed back to late Wednesday night, it could keep the severe weather threat down as well.
I suspect that a combination of both of these things will happen -- often, when we're on the northern fringe of the slight risk area, the activity further south keeps some of the warmth and moisture from getting up into Michigan, and we miss out on the worst storms. Still, we'll continue to watch the forecast trends into Wednesday.
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