The Climate Prediction Center (an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) released its winter outlook on Thursday.
As a whole, it heavily reflects what is considered typical of an El Nino pattern in the winter.
Here are the graphic products:
As you can see, Michigan is on the edge of a warmer and drier forecast. But, don't get too excited about it yet. This type of pattern would be indicative of a STRENGTHENING El Nino. While that is how the current forecast models play out through the winter right now, the forecast could easily flip if the el Nino turns out to be weaker than expected. After all, we've been in a weak El Nino pattern for the last few months, and we know how that has turned out!
Also, the CPC itself admits that they've left the North Atlantic Oscillation mostly out of the forecast because of low predictibility. The NAO is a pressure pattern that can dictate temperatures in the Northeast, especially in the winter. It can have an even more pronounced effect than El Nino.
So, as I've discussed before, I'm not going to put too much stock into ANY seasonal long-range forecast. It can be a matter of a couple hundred miles in the prevailing storm track between warm and wet, cold and snowy, and cold and dry.
As a whole, it heavily reflects what is considered typical of an El Nino pattern in the winter.
Here are the graphic products:
As you can see, Michigan is on the edge of a warmer and drier forecast. But, don't get too excited about it yet. This type of pattern would be indicative of a STRENGTHENING El Nino. While that is how the current forecast models play out through the winter right now, the forecast could easily flip if the el Nino turns out to be weaker than expected. After all, we've been in a weak El Nino pattern for the last few months, and we know how that has turned out!
Also, the CPC itself admits that they've left the North Atlantic Oscillation mostly out of the forecast because of low predictibility. The NAO is a pressure pattern that can dictate temperatures in the Northeast, especially in the winter. It can have an even more pronounced effect than El Nino.
So, as I've discussed before, I'm not going to put too much stock into ANY seasonal long-range forecast. It can be a matter of a couple hundred miles in the prevailing storm track between warm and wet, cold and snowy, and cold and dry.
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