Grand Rapids just wrapped up the 2nd wettest October on record. When we get to this time of year, folks always ask me, "What does that mean for the winter?" So, I thought I'd oblige by looking at the rest of the list.
10 Wettest Octobers on Record in Grand Rapids
Year Following Season Snowfall
------------------------------------------------------------
1954 72.3"
2009 ????
2001 105.3"
1911 53.5"
1969 84.6"
1941 69.0"
1991 87.8"
1959 90.7"
1988 62.4"
1990 60.6"
Average snowfall in Grand Rapids is essentially 72" (6 feet). So, the range here is all over the place, from well below average to well above average. One year right at the average, four below, and four above.
In other words, there's nothing you can take away from that one piece of data. Regardless, you always have to be careful when trying to make these sorts of correlations and predictions. Even the Climate Prediction Center's forecasts deal in probabilities, not what we call "deterministic" forecasts. So it's very easy to read too much into any conclusion you might reach from this sort of analysis.
I'll discuss that further in the coming weeks.
10 Wettest Octobers on Record in Grand Rapids
Year Following Season Snowfall
------------------------------------------------------------
1954 72.3"
2009 ????
2001 105.3"
1911 53.5"
1969 84.6"
1941 69.0"
1991 87.8"
1959 90.7"
1988 62.4"
1990 60.6"
Average snowfall in Grand Rapids is essentially 72" (6 feet). So, the range here is all over the place, from well below average to well above average. One year right at the average, four below, and four above.
In other words, there's nothing you can take away from that one piece of data. Regardless, you always have to be careful when trying to make these sorts of correlations and predictions. Even the Climate Prediction Center's forecasts deal in probabilities, not what we call "deterministic" forecasts. So it's very easy to read too much into any conclusion you might reach from this sort of analysis.
I'll discuss that further in the coming weeks.
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