As of midnight Thursday evening, the National Weather Service has upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings for Muskegon, Kent, and Ottawa counties with 6"-10" likely across some locations in those areas. Winter weather advisories are in effect for Allegan and Newaygo counties with 3"-6" possible there. Much lesser amounts 1"-3" elsewhere. This is obviously our first big snowfall of the season, but it will certainly be one to remember. There are essentially three things working together to produce the"perfect first" lake effect event. One, is plenty of energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere rotating through the Great Lakes. Two, enhancement from Lake Michigan. Three, just good old fashioned lake effect where colder air flows over the relatively warmer waters of Lake Michigan, picks up moisture, then deposits it in the form of snow on the lee side of the water. In order to get optimal lake effect, we need temperature differences between the lake and the air about 5,000 feet above the surface of at least 13 degrees. (More is better). We also need a saturated airmass (which we have with all the clouds). Finally, upper level energy just acts as an additional catalyst to create extra lift in order to sustain and enhance the snowfall. All of these things combined has already produced some lightning in Ottawa county around the Hudsonville area, plus one inch snowfall rates per hour.
Below is a snapshot of our latest computer forecast model we use here at FOX 17. It shows the heaviest snow setting up in dark blue and purple across southern Muskegon county, northern Ottawa, and portions of Kent. Other locations are expected to see lesser amounts. Make sure to allow plenty of time in the morning for the commute to work or school, and don't forget to slow things down! For those locations that get little to no snow from this event (Battle Creek/Lansing/I-94 southward, we have more accumulating snow on the way for next week Monday, and again on Wednesday and Thursday with two more systems. Stay tuned to later forecasts!
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