February 2010 Archives

It's still February, but it's never too early to think about severe weather season.  Kent County's Skywarn training session is at 7:00 PM on Thursday, February 25th.  It's at Grandville Middle School.  Preregistration has closed, but you may still register when you arrive.

Here's the link to the rest of the training sessions around West Michigan:
Link to NWS Skywarn Training schedule

Here is the Interactive Alert Map for West Michigan for Wednesday.

In talking to the National Weather Service this morning, they issued the Lake Effect Snow Warning because the snow was initially heaviest overnight for northern sections of the lakeshore.  However, even though the highest totals will be along the lakeshore, that doesn't really tell the whole story today.

This is far from a typical lake-effect setup... winds will be generally light and shifty during the day as an area of low pressure accompanied by a strong upper-level disturbance drops along the Lake Michigan shoreline during the day.  As such, we won't see bands blowing in from the lake as you would normally expect of lake-effect snow.

Instead, bands of snow will rotate around that low, even into inland portions of West Michigan.  Still, with a bit of help from the lake, the heaviest bursts will likely come along the shoreline.  But at pretty much any time, we're liable to see a heavier band of snow develop with rates of up to 1" an hour and visibilities of 1/2 mile or less.

Here are some of the most recent computer model forecasts:

10:00 AM Wednesday



3:00 PM Wednesday


Snow Accumulation (light blue = 2-4")




Send us your reports and photos - weather@fox17online.com!

Snowfall Map courtesy of the Grand Rapids National Weather Service Forecast Office

A modest winter storm brought moderate to heavy snow Sunday night into Monday morning across the southeastern third of Lower Michigan mainly from the Grand Rapids area south and eastward to and along the Interstate 94 corridor from Paw Paw and Kalamazoo, through Battle Creek and Jackson.  Grand Rapids set a new daily snowfall record of 4.9 inches for February 22 which beat the old record of 4.8 inches set in 1937.

My last entry outlined how much snow I thought we'd see. This entry will show our computer forecast model output and what it thinks will happen over the duration of this event. So below you'll notice a map of the Great Lakes. Areas in light blue indicate about 2"-4" of snow accumulation. Purple areas are about 4"-6", while dark blue colors indicate 6"-8'. There are a couple of spots of a darker blue south and east of Grand Rapids, which would indicate some isolated locations picking up 8"-10". There are a handful of forecast models we consult everyday, but many times these models do not agree. Our forecast model below is actually a bit of an outlier this time. It's showing the least amount of snow out of all the models, especially along the Michigan/Indiana border as freezing rain and rain may mix in there and keep the totals down a bit. Again, most areas in West Michigan will likely see 5"-8" with some isolated 8"-10" possible.

Last week Tuesday into Wednesday we had a pretty good snowfall of around 9" in Grand Rapids. A similar situation is shaping up again this week. I don't see the accumulations as heavy and widespread, but this will certainly be a noteworthy event. A developing low pressure system that originally started in Texas is drawing up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. That warm, moist air will rise over the several hundred mile treck up to Michigan. Long story short, we'll squeeze plenty of precipitation out of this system for a general 5"-8" across our area. One of the biggest differences you'll notice about this system is the wetter snow due the high moisture content. The last snowfall was much more light, fluffy, and powdery. With temperatures around 30 degrees, I expect about a 10:1 or 12:1 snow to water ratio instead of the 18:1 we saw last week. That means excellent packing snow for the kids making snowmen and having snowball fights.

Below is a graphic I constructed based on several computer forecast models. I believe areas in light blue will pick up about 5"-8" with some isolated 8"-10" amounts possible south and east of Grand Rapids. Most of those counties are under a Winter Storm Warning through Monday afternoon. Lighter amounts of snow will occur south of I94 to the Michigan/Indiana border as I believe some freezing rain and rain may mix in at times and keep snow totals down to around 3"-6" there. Muskegon, Oceana, Newaygo, and Mecosta counties are under Winter Weather Advisories and I anticipate about 3"-6" in those areas. Obviously, any deviation in the track of the low can make all the difference in the world, but that's the latest as of Sunday evening.

 

The following information is courtesy of NOAA/HPC...

 

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 6 FOR SOUTHERN SNOWSTORM
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2010

...RARE WINTER STORM IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...

WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM MOST OF GEORGIA NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH CAROLINA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 1000 PM EST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES...DEVELOPED IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 60
MILES EAST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AND WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A SHIELD OF SNOW EXTENDED
FROM GEORGIA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WERE MOVING RAPIDLY INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 200 AM EST THU FEB
11 THROUGH 900 PM EST THU FEB 12...

...GEORGIA...
LUMPKIN                               6.0                    
TALBOTTON                           4.0                    
HAMILTON 5 W                      3.5                    
VILLA RICA                            3.5                    
SENOIA 2 N                           3.0                    
DACULA                                2.5                    
CUTHBERT                            2.0                    
MACON                                 2.0                    
ROME                                   2.0                    
FORT GAINES                       1.0                    

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
COLUMBIA 4 ESE                    5.0                    
EVANS 1 SE                           5.0                    
BLYTHE                                  4.0                    
COLUMBIA                              4.0                    
LEXINGTON 2 WNW                 4.0                    
SMOAKS                                 4.0                    
BAMBERG                               3.0                    
BARNWELL                             3.0                    
CHAPIN                                   3.0                    
CHARLESTON                         .0                    

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...FLORIDA...
BISCAYNE PARK 5 S                 62                    
LONG KEY                                57                    
PERRINE                                   57                    
CUTLER RIDGE                          56                    
KENDALL                                   56                    
SOUTH MIAMI                            56                    

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...ALABAMA...
BELLEVILLE                            6.0                    
BRANTLEY                              5.0                    
EVERGREEN 5 N                     5.0                    
THOMASVILLE                         5.0                    
EUFAULA 4 S                          4.5                    
LOTTIE                                    4.5                    
ARITON                                   4.0                    
PINSON                                   4.0                    
RAMER                                    4.0                    
TROY                                      4.0                    
WARD                                     4.0                    

...ARKANSAS...
FOREMAN                                 4.0                    
TEXARKANA 1 N                        4.0                    
ASHDOWN                                3.0                    
MENA                                       3.0                    
AMITY 1 N                                 2.5                    
VANDERVOORT                        2.5                    
DE QUEEN                               2.0                    
HAMPTON                                2.0                    
FORDYCE 6.6 NNW                  1.8                    

...LOUISIANA...
SHREVEPORT 9.1 SE                     6.1                    
NATCHITOCHES 0.9 NE                   6.0                    
SHONGALOO 5 N                            6.0                    
SICILY ISLAND 3.3 WNW                 6.0                    
GOLDONNA 8.8 SSW                      5.6                    
MONROE                                        5.0                    
PLAIN DEALING 3.3 ESE                 5.0                    
HOMER 1.2 N                                  3.7                    
WEST MONROE 6.1 WSW               3.5                    

...MISSISSIPPI...
DE KALB                                   8.0                    
CATAHOULA                             5.0                    
VICKSBURG                             5.0                    
BRANDON 1.9 NE                      4.6                    
MADISON 1.1 SW                      4.5                    
RAYVILLE                                  4.2                    
BROOKHAVEN                          4.0                    
MCCALL CREEK 5 W                 4.0                    
FOREST                                    3.5                    
PORT GIBSON 6 NW                  3.5                    

...OKLAHOMA...
HAWORTH 4 SW                          7.5                    
IDABEL 8 SE                                7.5                    
ADA 0.3 NNW                               5.6                    
RATTAN 13 E                                4.5                    
LOCO 0.9 SE                                4.3                    
CORINNE                                      3.5                    
FORT TOWSON 1 W                      3.5                    
SULPHUR 2.5 WSW                      3.5                    
CANEY 7 W                                  3.0                    
CAMDEN 1.8 NNW                        2.0                    

...TEXAS...
DUNCANVILLE 1.7 NNW                  14.9                    
HASLET                                          14.2                    
FORT WORTH                                 12.6                    
DALLAS                                          12.5                    
MANSFIELD 2.6 NNE                       12.2                    
BRIDGEPORT                                  12.0                    
ROYSE CITY                                   12.0                    
SANGER 1.8 WSW                          12.0                    
MESQUITE 3.3 ESE                         11.4                    
NORTH RICHLAND HILLS 1.9 NE      11.3                    

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL FREEZING RAIN IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT
HAS ENDED...

...ALABAMA...
IRONDALE                              0.30                    


THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A
POLAR AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND THIS STRENGTHENING STORM
WHICH WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO FALL TO ITS
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BEFORE THE LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 AM EST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
EVENT.

I know it's not a perfect comparison because of the climatology of the respective regions, but I've updated the stats from the post I made yesterday.

See below for more on the numbers I was using.

All these numbers are 1971-2000 normals and snowfall data for Feb. 1-10:

Location                Feb. MTD 2010   Feb. Avg. Snow     Annual Avg. Snow   % of Normal
DC-Reagan Airport       31.9"           5.2"                  15.2"             210%
DC-Dulles Airport         47.9"           6.2"                  21.2"             226%
Baltimore                    49.2"           6.4"                  18.2"             270%
Philadelphia                44.4"           6.6"                  19.3"              230%
Average                    43.4"            6.1"                 18.5"             234%

The average February snowfall for Grand Rapids is 12.2", and the yearly average is 72.2".  Muskegon's averages are 18.3" for February and 105.5" for the year. 

So, if you calculate based on the totals for those four East Coast sites, it's the equivalent of Grand Rapids getting about 169" of snow (that's more than 14 feet) in ten days, and about 247" (20 feet, seven inches) for Muskegon.  Yikes!!!!

Snowfall Map courtesy of the Grand Rapids National Weather Service Forecast Office.

The snow that fell across West Michigan on Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, February 9-10 was the first significant synoptic snow event, other than lake-effect snow, to impact the region since December 10, 2009.  The heaviest snow fell from Holland, Grand Rapids and Lansing south through Paw Paw, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek and Jackson where total accumulations of 8 to 10 inches were common.  The NWS office in Grand Rapids measured 9.7 inches of snow (8.1 on the 9th which was a new daily record and 1.6 on the 10th).  An isolated 12 inch total was reported near Battle Creek.  Otherwise, as expected, lighter amounts of snow fell up north.  We will enjoy a stretch of quieter winter weather now through the weekend with only a small chance of a few intermittent flurries.   

 

My good buddy "Sat Truck Troy" from the morning crew suggested I talk about this... trying to put the snowstorms in the mid-Atlantic region in perspective for a West Michigan audience.

So, let's compare the snowfall there to local averages and see what it would mean to see the same kind of snowfall around here in Grand Rapids.

All these numbers are 1971-2000 normals and snowfall data for Feb. 1-9 (not counting Wednesday's additional big snowfall):

Location                Feb. MTD 2010   Feb. Avg. Snow   % of Normal   Annual Avg. Snow   % of Normal
DC-Reagan Airport       24.8"           5.2"             477%            15.2"             163%
DC-Dulles Airport         38.6"           6.2"             623%            21.2"             182%
Baltimore                    33.7"           6.4"             527%            18.2"             185%
Philadelphia                35.2"           6.6"             533%            19.3"              182%
Average                    33.1"            6.1"             543%            18.5"             179%

The average February snowfall for Grand Rapids is 12.2", and the yearly average is 72.2".  Muskegon's averages are 18.3" for February and 105.5" for the year. 

So, if you calculate based on the totals for those four East Coast sites, it's the equivalent of Grand Rapids getting about 129" of snow (that's 10 feet, nine inches) in nine days, and about 189" (15 feet, nine inches) for Muskegon.  Yikes!!!!

Once the numbers are in from the storm that's currently hitting those same areas, I'll update these figures in a new post.

Send us your photos!

Photo from Mitch in Kentwood:

Snow has spread into West Michigan this morning... as of 8:30 AM, snowfall accumulations of 1-2" were already common for areas south of I-94.

Here's what we expect for totals through midday Wednesday:



Winds will pick up later on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and continue to shift to the north at 15-25 mph through much of the day Wednesday.  Thus, blowing and drifting snow will create further problems as the snow continues to pile up.

The heaviest snow will come in bursts as bands rotate through the area.  Those heavier bands may drop 1" or more per hour, especially Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

Stay tuned to FOX17online.com for further updates.

 

Photo of sundogs/tangential arc over the weekend in Oceana County near Mears by Louise Olsen. 

 

After a long snow drought... a winter storm system will finally impact central and southern Lower Michigan.  The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for the entire FOX 17 viewing area from 7 AM Tuesday through 1 PM Wednesday.  Light snow will develop from southwest to northeast on Tuesday morning and become heavy at times from late Tuesday afternoon through daybreak Wednesday.  Snow will diminish to lighter snow showers or flurries Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon.  Current computer models continue to show that storm total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are possible with the highest amounts of locally up to a foot will occur in the counties south and east of Grand Rapids... particularly in the vicinity of Hastings... Lansing... Battle Creek... Charlotte Marshall and Jackson.  Less snow will fall farther north and west of a line from Whitehall to Mount Pleasant.  A northeast wind will gust at times up to 30 mph and cause some blowing and drifting of snow... especially in open... rural areas.  Road and air travel conditions will become hazardous Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning.  School and events cancellations are likely Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning.  Stay tuned to FOX 17 on-air and on-line for further updates.  

While December was a fairly active month for snowfall (35" for the month), January and the first few days of February have been just the opposite. No big snowstorms and generally a quiet, uneventful weather pattern. However, that's about to change. Our forecast models for the past few days have been showing (and agreeing) on a strong upper level system coming out of the northern Plains and drifting into the Midwest. This system will link up (or phase) with another low coming up from the Gulf coast. Needless to say, the cold air will be in place and the moisture will be streaming northward from the south. The actual low track will be just south of the Great Lakes across central Illinois, Indiana, and eventually into Ohio. This is a very favorable progression for heavy snow for us!

I've attached our latest computer model forcast for accumulated snow as of Sunday night at 11:00 PM. The light blue areas well north of Grand Rapids amount to about 2"-4". The medium blue (slight purple color) total about 4"-6", and the dark blue from Grand Rapids to the south is 6"-10". There is certainly the possibility of some 12" or more amounts with the fantastic lift this system will have. I would expect 1"-2" snowfall rates per hour at times Tuesday evening and Tuesday night before things start tapering off through the day Wednesday. This will be a long duration event starting Tuesday morning and continuing into Wednesday. A winter storm watch has already been posted for our entire area from Tuesday morning into Wednesday early afternoon. Drive safely and stay tuned to later forecasts!

February 3rd is the anniversary of the coldest temperature ever recorded in North America: -81° F at Snag Airport in Yukon Territories, Canada.  It was so cold, the temperature didn't even register correctly on the thermometer!  Here's the link to the full story.

Check out what a trip to that area can do to your facial hair: