Jon Shaner: May 2009 Archives

Tropical Depression One

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Atlantic hurricane season starts officially on June 1st, but the first system of the season is already in the Atlantic.  At the time I'm writing this (3:30 AM Friday), there's just a narrow window for the storm to strengthen enough to receive the name of "Ana" as the first tropical storm of the year in the Atlantic basin.  Regardless, the storm is expected to have essentially no impact on land as it moves out to sea.

You can get updates at the National Hurricane Center website.

In case you're wondering, here is the list of storm names for the 2009 season.

Jon's Grilling Ideas

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I'm a guy who does about 95% of the cooking in our household.  Frankly, I'm not big on recipes (except when baking), so a lot of what I make might start with an idea I see on TV or a restaurant menu, and then change depending on what I like or have available.

With a big grilling day upon us (and pleasant weather for said grilling), I thought I'd share a couple of my favorites.  Again, I'm no professional, but if you get an idea or two based on these items, I'm glad to help!

Grilled Asparagus

Trim and wash some fresh Michigan asparagus, then toss it in just enough olive oil to coat.  Sprinkle on some kosher salt and lemon pepper (garlic powder is also good), then grill on medium heat until asparagus gets a little black and crunchy on the outside, and fork-tender on the inside.  If you like it a little softer, you can steam the asparagus for a couple of minutes before seasoning.

Asian Burgers

Mix up your burgers just as you normally would, but add maybe a tablespoon of soy sauce and a half-teaspoon of ginger (if you're a heat-lover like myself, crushed red pepper is also a good addition).  Then, as you grill your burgers, throw on a couple of slices of red onion and pineapple on lower heat off to the side.  Cook those until they blacken and soften a bit, then serve on the burgers.  If you want to go really crazy, slather on a bit of wasabi mayonnaise!

Andrea's Favorite Steak Sauce

My wife loves when I whip up some of this to put over some grilled steak.  In a little olive oil, sauté some thinly sliced onions and minced garlic.  For 2-4 servings, try maybe a quarter of a yellow onion and a teaspoon of garlic.  When the aromatics have started to soften, pour in about 3/4 cup of red wine (cabernet or merlot work pretty well) and simmer until reduced by half.  Then, melt in chunks of dark or bittersweet chocolate, just enough to give the sauce a thicker and creamier texture.  You can certainly adjust this to taste, depending on how sweet you want it.  This works best if you contrast that sweet sauce with a spicy seasoning on the steak when you grill (think chile powder, cayenne, cumin, etc.)

Enjoy!

Golf Forecast

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GolfForecast.jpg
OK, golfers, I need your input.  Occasionally, over the last two years, I've been engaged in a friendly debate with a news manager here at FOX 17 over my Golf Forecast.

He tends to feel that I rate the forecast too highly on my (purely subjective) scoring scale as seen above with today's forecast.

Here's part of the note I got at 6:19 this morning:

"Eagle?
Your "personal golf tastes" are ignoring the impact of the wind (9-18 mph) and the impact that temperatures below 80 have on ball flight distance.  You're also ignoring the impact that sub-80 degree temps have on an old man's back.  I just can't get loose!
Birdie seems more realistic."

I guess I must have either lower expectations for golf weather, or being a "young man" (or just a hacker) makes me less sensitive to the conditions.

My system is far from scientific, but I'm open to input from other golfers.  What do you think?  Is today a birdie or an eagle?  If there's a feeling one way or the other, I'll shift my scale a bit.

Of course, in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really impact the actual weather... but on a pleasant day, I thought I could open it up for discussion.

I won't make you sign in to comment -- you can send them straight to me.

Have a good one (and happy golfing)!

Another Frosty Monday AM

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The roundup of some of the overnight lows from Sunday night / Monday morning... hope you got the plants covered up again!

As was the case last week, the coldest site was Leota in rural Clare County at 21°.

Airport sites:
Grand Rapids 35°
Muskegon 35°
Holland 37°
Kalamazoo 34°
Battle Creek 31°
Big Rapids 27°
Fremont 34°
Charlotte 32°
Marshall 34°
South Haven 34°
Benton Harbor 32°
Coldwater 34°
Sturgis 34°
Three Rivers 34°

Cooperative observing sites:
Hart 36°
Allendale 35°
East Grand Rapids 34°
Grandville 32°
Hastings 31°
Bloomingdale 27°
Entrican 32°
Hudsonville 34°
West Olive 32°
Sparta 34°
Belding 31°
Clarksville 35°
Fennville 33°
Hartford 31°

New Surf Zone Forecast

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SunsetGH_JakeMellema_Trufant.jpg

Photo: Grand Haven lakeshore (Jake Mellema)

The area's National Weather Service offices have started a new series of products for beach and boating enthusiasts.  It's called the "Surf Zone Forecast" and brings together several pieces of information that are relevant for folks planning to be at the lakeshore on Lake Michigan.

This is the link to the NWS Grand Rapids website for this information.
One of the best things about that site is the additional safety information available.

Here's a sample of the text version of the forecast:

MUSKEGON-  
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF...MUSKEGON STATE PARK...  
PJ HOFFMASTER STATE PARK...DUCK LAKE STATE PARK...  
PERE MARQUETTE PARK...MEINERT PARK  
559 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2009  
   
TODAY
 
RIP CURRENT RISK....HIGH.  
WAVES...............1 TO 3 FEET BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
WATER TEMPERATURE...46 DEGREES.  
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.  
BEACH WINDS.........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.  
UVI INDEX...........7 - HIGH.  
 
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND/OR WAVE CONDITIONS  
SUPPORT DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING  
TO ANYONE ENTERING THE WATER.  
   
TONIGHT
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH  
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET.    
TUESDAY
 
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS  
AROUND 15 MPH. WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET.    
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS  
AROUND 15 MPH. WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET.    
WEDNESDAY
 
BREEZY. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS 20 TO  
25 MPH. WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET.  
 
SUNRISE: 6:18 AM EDT  
SUNSET: 9:05 PM EDT  
----------------------------------------
All of this information was previously available in various locations, but the goal here is to make it easier for beachgoers to find the weather information they need.

Of course, much of this has always been featured in FOX 17 Weather's Lake Michigan forecast during the beach/boating season.  Watch for that forecast to return soon!

Here are the forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center for today and tonight (updated 8:30
AM):

Severe risk outlook:
day1otlk_1300_prt.gif

Damaging wind risk:
day1probotlk_1300_wind_prt.gif

Tornado risk:
day1probotlk_1300_torn_prt.gif

Large hail risk:
day1probotlk_1300_hail_prt.gif

The most notable shift since the last forecast is an expansion and increase in the tornado threat across parts of Illinois and Missouri.

For West Michigan, the threat is still kind of questionable -- most likely, we'll see a line of gradually weakening thunderstorms move in late this evening that will have wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range.  That could be just enough to trigger a few severe thunderstorm warnings.  Overall, though, we're not anticipating widespread severe weather at this time.
Here are the updated outlook and probability forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center (click for larger version):

Day2_SVROutlook.gif
Day2_SVRprobs.gif
There's a strong indication for a severe weather outbreak across Illinois and Missori tomorrow into tomorrow night.  Notice that we are on the fringe of the slight risk area.  I'm not all that concerned about widespread severe weather around our area, as most of the instability will stay south of West Michigan.  Timing should also work in our favor, as the main line of storms may not roll in until after sunset.  Still, this system has strong support from a dynamic (wind) standpoint, so there will likely be at least some strong to marginally severe storms along with the cold front.

The biggest question with this system isn't the storms with the cold front, but the development of an MCS (large complex of storms) tonight into early tomorrow.  Current forecast models keep most of that activity south of us, but it's certainly possible that some of those weakening storms may make it into West Michigan during the daytime.

Wednesday Severe Threat

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We're keeping an eye on a cold front that will make it to West Michigan late Wednesday, as it carries a threat of severe weather.  The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a Moderate Risk for parts of the Midwest with a 45% probability of severe weather through parts of Illinois and Missouri.  That level of confidence in an outbreak by the SPC is not very common three days in advance.

Day3SVRoutlook.gif
Day3SVRprob.gif
Temperatures should climb into the low 70s Wednesday afternoon, with windy conditions out of the south and southwest ahead of the front.  It's a very dynamic system, with fairly strong winds both at the surface and aloft.  The big question for the day is how much instability will develop... current forecast models bring some showers/storms into the area early in the day, which would possibly keep things from getting out of control.  That's a pretty typical situation for West Michigan -- a lot will depend on how much of a break there is between the first batch of rain and the main line of storms along the cold front.  Also, if the timing of the main line of storms gets pushed back to late Wednesday night, it could keep the severe weather threat down as well.

I suspect that a combination of both of these things will happen -- often, when we're on the northern fringe of the slight risk area, the activity further south keeps some of the warmth and moisture from getting up into Michigan, and we miss out on the worst storms.  Still, we'll continue to watch the forecast trends into Wednesday.


Frosty Monday

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As expected, Monday morning was a chilly one around West Michigan.  I hope you heeded our advice and brought in or covered your sensitive plants!  The coldest reading I saw nearby this morning was a remote automated weather station in Leota (Clare Co.) that got down to 19°!

Some of the overnight lows recorded around the area:
Airports-
Grand Rapids 34°
Muskegon 31°
Holland 36°
Kalamazoo 36°
Battle Creek 36°
Big Rapids 27°
Fremont 32°
Marshall 37°
South Haven 32°
Benton Harbor 32°
Three Rivers 37°

Cooperative observations-
Fremont 31°
Allendale 34°
Nunica 29°
East G.R. 34°
Grandville 33°
Ionia 34°
Hastings 34°
Bloomingdale 28°
Sparta 32°
Hudsonville 33°
Entrican 32°
Belding 32°
Hartford 30°

While it may not be quite as chilly, there is still a frost/freeze possibility for Monday night and Tuesday morning.  So, take care to protect those plants again.

River Bank Run forecast

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We're continuing to tweak the forecast for the weekend with all of the big events coming up, especially the River Bank Run and the Tulip Time Muziekparade.

One thing we do know is that we'll see cooler conditions moving into the region, with Saturday highs only in the mid to upper 50s.

The biggest question is with the timing of rain chances.  The last in a series of upper-level disturbances will move through on Saturday, but it should take most of the wet weather out of our area the first half of the day.  The latest RPM computer model times the end of the rain showers at about 8 or 9 A.M.

So, the Tulip Time parade in the afternoon will likely be dry, but the same can't be said for the River Bank Run in the morning.

We'll keep you posted as the forecast becomes (hopefully) more clear heading into the weekend.
Good morning!  Man, what a nice day yesterday.  I hope you're taking advantage of the opportunity to enjoy some outdoor activities.  With a quiet day today, we're looking ahead to next weekend for all of the big events happening around West Michigan.  It's a tricky forecast, as the two main medium-range computer models disagree on rain chances for Saturday.  We'll obviously be updating that forecast as it gets closer.  The current confidence level in the dry forecast is maybe 3 out of 10.

I also wanted to share some congratulations with West Michigan high school students this morning.  Over the weekend, hundreds of students competed in the Michigan Interscholastic Forensic Association Individual Events State Tournament.  So what exactly is that?  Well, MIFA is an organization that encompasses competitive public speaking, debate, and theatre.  "Individual Events" are a broad range of competitions where students do things like interpret (similar to acting) prose, poetry, or dramatic literature; deliver prepared informative or persuasive speeches; or address current events with limited preparation.  I can't even begin to describe it all in this post... if you want to learn more, head to the MIFA website.  It's near and dear to me, as I've been a volunteer coach at Kenowa Hills High School for the last three years, as well as judging tournaments around the region.

Congratulations to the amazingly talented students from the FOX 17 viewing area winning state titles:

Class A
Class A Team Sweepstakes: Portage Northern
Impromptu: Brennan Mange, Portage Northern
Informative: Charlotte Landes, Holland
Oratory: Caitlin Utt, Portage Northern
Informative 9/10: Annie Hamilton, Holland
Dramatic Interpretation: Andrew Beckner, Portage Northern
Duo Interpretation: Maxwell & Terry, Mattawan
Multiple Interpretation: Charlotte's Web, Portage Northern
Prose Interpretation: Nich Mueller, Portage Northern
Storytelling: Erin Hamilton, Holland

Class BCD
Class B Team Sweepstakes: Grand Rapids Christian
Broadcasting: Mattie Cook, Ionia
Informative 9/10: Kirsten Boelkins, Grand Rapids Christian
Prose Interpretation: James Randall, Grand Rapids Christian
Storytelling: Becca Boerman, Grand Rapids Christian



 

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This page is a archive of recent entries written by Jon Shaner in May 2009.

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