Jon Shaner: August 2009 Archives

Wow, what a chilly morning for the end of August!  Muskegon set an all-time record low for August 31st at 41 degrees, breaking the old record of 42 back in 1915.

Some of the other morning lows around the region:

Grand Rapids 45°
Kalamazoo 45°
Battle Creek 46°
Big Rapids 34°
Fremont 41°
Marshall 45°
South Haven 45°
Benton Harbor 43°
Coldwater 46°
Sturgis 48°
Three Rivers 43°
Hart 37°
Allendale 43°
Nunica 36°
Hastings 43°
Bloomingdale 40°

The coldest temperatures elsewhere in the Lower Peninsula:
Cadillac 32°
Houghton Lake 32°
Leota (Clare Co.) 28°

Rain showers will still be hanging around parts of West Michigan as we head into this evening, but they will not be quite as widespread as earlier in the day.  There should be a bit of a break later tonight.  Still chilly, though!

Over the weekend, the national media will likely go nuts over Tropical Storm (possibly becoming Hurricane) Danny, because it could have widespread impact along the East Coast.  However, keep in mind that based on the current forecasts, it is not likely to make a direct U.S. landfall, and only pass by as a minimal Category 1 storm.  Of course, that doesn't negate the serious impacts of any tropical cyclone; just make sure to take the inevitable hype from the networks with a grain of salt.

Official updates on Danny's track can be found here.

The Storm Prediction Center outlook for today has generally reduced the expected chances of severe storms later today:

After how quiet the Atlantic hurricane season has been so far, the last 24 hours have been surprising in that TWO tropical storms have formed.  Their names are Ana and Bill.  Ana is the system that was known as Tropical Depression Two, which had lost development for a period of time.

Both systems are going to continue westward, threatening the islands of the Lesser Antilles.  The National Hurricane Center forecast for Ana even has the storm positioned near the Straits of Florida by next Thursday.

Click here for the NHC update page.

Saturday and Sunday are both Air Quality Action! Days for most of West Michigan.  For more info on what that means, plus tips on how you can improve local air quality, click here.

Some of the most basic tips, courtesy of the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality:

Tropical Updates:

Hurricane Guillermo has formed in the eastern Pacific: Update Link

Tropical Depression Two never strengthened in the Atlantic, and the National Hurricane Center has stopped issuing updated forecasts on the system.  However, there is a good chance at another tropical depression developing off the coast of Africa in the next couple of days.

Tropical Depression Two has formed in the far eastern Atlantic.  Here is the link to the National Hurricane Center information on the storm.

It is called Two for now because it has not reached tropical storm strength, but it is expected to within the next couple of days.  At that point, it will become "Ana."

As we've discussed in the past, this is unusually late in the season to have not yet seen the first Atlantic tropical storm.  By this point last year, we were already up to Edouard; in the record 2005 season, Irene had already developed.

Part of the reason for that is likely the developing El Nino in the Pacific; El Nino typically lends itself to a less-active Atlantic hurricane season.

Tonight (Tuesday night) is the peak for the 2009 Perseid meteor shower.  In a lot of years, viewing opportunities are limited by clouds, but we'll be mostly clear tonight.  The biggest issues will be timing (the best viewing will come during the early morning predawn hours) and moonlight (a waning gibbous moon will likely "drown out" some of the more faint meteors).

If you're interested in checking them out, here's a link to the NASA page with viewing information.

As storms roll through the northern half of the viewing area, I'll be on the main weather page with a live chat so you can report what's happening in your backyard.

Join me there.

Or, e-mail me your weather photos!

OK, it's going to be hot and humid Sunday with high temperatures in the 90s and heat index values near 100°.  I know you want to go to the beach.  But PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE, keep in mind that rip currents are going to be a significant risk at the beach, as winds will be in the 15-25 mph range and waves of 3-5 feet.

With winds out of the southwest, the worst conditions are typically along the south side of piers... that means places like South Beach in South Haven, Grand Haven State Park, and Pere Marquette Park in Muskegon are especially at risk.

Please visit this website (NWS link) for more information on rip current safety.

Stay cool tomorrow, and have a happy and safe rest of the weekend! - JS

Some of the rainfall totals as of 2 PM Saturday:

Battle Creek 2.24"
Big Rapids 1.68"
Dorr 2.67"
Greenville 2.16"
Hastings 1.70"
Hudsonville 1.15"
Kentwood 1.07"
Muskegon 1.13"
Richland 3.25"
Shelby 1.25"
Wayland 1.96"

There were several reports of minor low-level and street flooding, in addition to two fires in Van Buren County that were believed to have been started by lightning.

Don't forget, you can always e-mail us your severe weather and rainfall reports.  Be sure to include your name, a contact number if we need more info, location, and time of the report.
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Here are the updated severe weather outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center for tonight and Sunday.  There is also a severe weather risk on Monday, although it isn't clearly delineated on the outlook map.

I'm waiting for some scattered storms to fire up as the warm front lifts northward this evening.  The best chance of storms tonight is north of I-96.  Otherwise, we should expect to stay dry until late in the day on Sunday.  As the cold front approaches into Monday, chances of storms increase, although the upper-level support is not terribly impressive for severe weather in that timeframe.

Saturday night's outlook:


Sunday's outlook (through early Monday morning)- note that I've included the outlook with probabilities for a better sense of where the greatest risk lies to our west.

Here are the severe weather outlooks for Saturday and Sunday.  The most likely period for thunderstorms will be late tonight through early Saturday, but those storms are not likely to be severe.  Instead, we'll have to really watch for any storms developing Saturday afternoon/evening and again late Sunday... those would have more of a severe weather potential.  I'll be working Saturday, so I will be sure to update things as we start to get more clarity in the forecast.  - JS

Saturday...

The Atlantic hurricane season has been extremely quiet to date, but it has been a bit more active in the Eastern Pacific.  Tropical Storm Enrique and Hurricane Felicia are both spinning in open waters at this time.  I share this with you primarily because the headline caught my attention... something about the phrase "Tenacious Enrique refuses to weaken" made me chuckle.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009
200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009

...TENACIOUS ENRIQUE REFUSES TO WEAKEN...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.9 WEST OR ABOUT
1035 MILES...1670 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ENRIQUE IS ALREADY OVER COOL WATERS AND IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

First off, thanks to those of you who watched the morning news and sent along birthday wishes.  Much appreciated!  I plan to celebrate by bringing back the pleasant, not-as-humid upper 70s weather we've enjoyed much of the summer so far.  That's tomorrow and Thursday.

Anyway, just a couple of quick notes about this week so far, and the weeks to come:

- Despite morning clouds and rain, Grand Rapids still managed to make it to 86° on Monday.  That was the warmest high temperature in more than 5 weeks (June 26, also 86°).

- Monday was also the last day for the year where the sunset is 9:00 P.M. or later... another sign of the rapidly dwindling days of summer!

- Computer models are all agreeing that a significant warmup is on the way for the weekend.  Expect hot, humid conditions... the only differences are on the timing of the start of the warmer air and thus thunderstorms that may accompany the warm front.

Here's the Climate Prediction Center forecast for the period from August 11-17:



Looks like some semblance of summer will grace us with its presence through the middle of the month! - JS