Weather Connection

Record highs vs. Record lows

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 08:21:48 -0500

An interesting study done by the National Center for Atmospheric Research shows that in this decade, there have been more record highs set than record lows in the U.S.

As meteorologists, we're always looking for signs of impacts of climate change on day-to-day weather, and this appears to be a very tangible one. Additionally, the study is based on readily available data, and doesn't attempt to leap to exaggerated conclusions.

Read the full summary at this link.

High school football forecast - Friday 11.06.09

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 07:16:29 -0500

Weather conditions are looking pretty good for district final games Friday night and Saturday afternoon. Even though we don't officially have "Blitz" coverage, we still have a Game of the Week - it's Byron Center at East Grand Rapids:

The full list of local teams in playoff games:

Division 1
R1-D1: Grand Haven (8-1) at Rockford (9-0) - F 7:00 PM

Division 2
R1-D1: Muskegon (6-3) at Lowell (8-1) - F 7:00 PM

R1-D2: Caledonia (7-2) at Portage Central (8-1) - F 7:30 PM

Division 3

R2-D1: Byron Center (8-1) at East Grand Rapids (9-0) - F 7:00 PM

R2-D2: Stevensville Lakeshore (7-2) at St Joseph (7-2) - F 7:30 PM

Division 4

R1-D1:	Big Rapids (8-1) at Kingsford (7-2) - S 2:00 PM
R1-D2:	Stanton Central Montcalm (6-3) at Saginaw Swan Valley (7-2) - F 7:00 PM
R2-D1:	Holland Christian (7-2) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (9-0) - F 7:00 PM
R2-D2:	Hamilton (8-1) at Three Rivers (9-0) - F 7:00 PM at Vicksburg HS
R3-D1:	Williamston (8-1) at Marshall (8-1) - S 1:00 PM

Division 5

R3-D1: Muskegon Heights (7-2) at Morley-Stanwood (9-0) - F 7:00 PM

R3-D2: Berrien Springs (7-2) at Wyoming Kelloggsville (9-0) - F 7:00 PM at East Kentwood HS

Division 6

R1-D2: Sanford Meridian (8-1) at Montague (9-0) - S 1:00 PM at Holton HS

R3-D1: Constantine (7-2) at Watervliet (8-1) - F 7:00 PM

R3-D2: Michigan Center (6-3) at Bronson (7-2) - F 7:00 PM

Division 7

R2-D2:	Ravenna (7-2) at Potterville (9-0) - S 1:00 PM
R3-D1:	White Pigeon (8-1) at Mendon (9-0) - S 1:00 PM

Division 8

R3-D1: Muskegon Catholic Central (5-4) at Climax-Scotts (9-0) - F 7:00 PM

R3-D2: Pittsford (6-3) at Colon (8-1) - F 7:30 PM

British Wines & Climate Change

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 05:50:02 -0500

Here's a script that came in the international portion of our FOX News feed this morning:

"THE SOUTH OF ENGLAND COULD SOON RIVAL FRANCE AS A WINE-GROWING REGION... THANKS TO CLIMATE CHANGE.
SOUTHERN ENGLISH VINEYARDS ARE STARTING TO COMPETE WITHIN THE INDUSTRY.
WARMER SUMMERS AND MILDER WINTERS HAVE IMPROVED THE REGION'S GRAPES, MAKING FOR A MORE MARKETABLE PRODUCT.
CHRIS WHITE, GENERAL MANAGER AT DENBIES VINEYARDS says: "The red wine over the last few years has improved dramatically, both in terms of what we can produce here, in terms of the different varieties we can now grow here in the UK, but also the quality and quantity of what we can now grow here."
SOME SCIENTISTS WARN GLOBAL WARMING COULD SHIFT GROWING PATTERNS FOR CROPS.
WINEMAKERS ARE IN NO DOUBT - RISING TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REDRAWN THE INTERNATIONAL WINE MAP."

This story is a good illustration of what I feel is the "moderate" position on climate change: Something is happening to our global climate. Stories like this illustrate those very legitimate impacts. But popular media and politics cloud the issues. Now, most of the discussion of climate change focuses on the screamers on either side of the spectrum, touting either impending doom or claiming a vast conspiracy to destroy America.

When you hear those people, I encourage you to tune them out. While there are basic principles and ranges of future impacts that are scientifically sound at this point, there's still a heck of a lot about climate change that we still have to figure out. Data manipulation and exaggeration of conclusions seem to be rampant on both sides, making even some of the science sketchy. But it's certainly worthwhile to study the current impacts that we can observe, and work on improving both our short- and long-term forecasting abilities. We can also strive to find economically and environmentally positive ways to improve the situation. It doesn't have to be a tradeoff, if we're willing to commit the research time and resources to the issue, and end the useless bickering.

How do I know this is a moderate position? Because I get complaints from both sides anytime I express it!

Feel free to comment below yourself, or drop me an e-mail.

Where in Michigan? Week 1

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 08:08:06 -0500

On FOX 17 Morning News Wednesday, we kicked off a new "game" on our Morning News Live Blog.

I've picked out photos of a Michigan landmark, and I reveal pieces of the photo online throughout the morning.

It's just sort of a fun way to pass the time if you're checking out the show and have the computer on in the morning.

Here were this morning's photo clues, along with the full photo of the Kent County Courthouse. Congrats to Danny, who was the first to guess the correct location!

Watch for another photo game next Wednesday!

Winter hazards awareness week

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 07:00:26 -0500

Yep, it's that time again... here's today's official posting from the National Weather Service... full info at this link.

GOVERNOR JENNIFER GRANHOLM HAS DECLARED THE WEEK OF NOVEMBER 1
THROUGH 7 AS WINTER HAZARDS AWARENESS WEEK IN MICHIGAN.
THE MICHIGAN COMMITTEE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS URGES ALL
MICHIGAN RESIDENTS TO PREPARE FOR THE COMING SEASON BY REVIEWING
SAFETY PROCEDURES AND MAKING SURE THEIR FAMILIES...HOMES AND
VEHICLES ARE READY FOR WINTER WEATHER.
   
WEATHER CHANGES CONTINUALLY IN MICHIGAN...AND THE COMING WINTER
IS LIKELY TO BRING EPISODES OF SNOW...ICE...AND BITTER COLD THAT WILL
PUT STRESS ON PEOPLE...ANIMALS...AND MACHINES.  DRIVING BECOMES
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS IN SNOW AND ICE...SO BE SURE TO PLAN ALL TRIPS
CAREFULLY AND LISTEN TO THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS.
  
VISIBILITY CAN BE REDUCED DRAMATICALLY AS MOTORISTS DRIVE INTO
FALLING SNOW.  ADD TO THAT THE UNSEEN HAZARD OF ICE ON THE ROADS
AND THE SHORTER PERIODS OF DAYLIGHT...AND DRIVING DURING THE
WINTER CAN OFTEN BECOME TREACHEROUS.  NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW
DRIVING HABITS AND ALSO TAKE STOCK OF SAFETY PLIES.

DO NOT ABANDON YOUR CAR AND WALK INTO A SNOW STORM.  IN CASE YOU
ARE STRANDED...YOUR VEHICLE SHOULD BE EQUIPPED WITH AN EMERGENCY
KIT.  AN EMERGENCY KIT SHOULD INCLUDE BOOSTER CABLES...SHOVEL...
TOW ROPE...SAND OR CAT LITTER...AND A FLASHLIGHT WITH EXTRA
BATTERIES.  DO NOT FORGET A FIRST AID KIT...NON PERISHABLE FOOD...AND
BLANKETS OR SLEEPING BAGS.  KEEP YOUR GAS TANK NEAR FULL TO AVOID
ICE IN THE TANK AND FUEL LINES.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MICHIGAN
COMMITTEE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS...WILL ISSUE DAILY
INFORMATION STATEMENTS THIS WEEK...OFFERING OTHER WINTER WEATHER
SAFETY TIPS AND DEFINITIONS OF WINTER WEATHER TERMS.

Wet Octobers & Winter

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 07:48:31 -0500

Grand Rapids just wrapped up the 2nd wettest October on record. When we get to this time of year, folks always ask me, "What does that mean for the winter?" So, I thought I'd oblige by looking at the rest of the list.

10 Wettest Octobers on Record in Grand Rapids

Year     Following Season Snowfall
------------------------------------------------------------
1954     72.3"
2009     ????
2001     105.3"
1911     53.5"
1969     84.6"
1941     69.0"
1991     87.8"
1959     90.7"
1988     62.4"
1990     60.6"

Average snowfall in Grand Rapids is essentially 72" (6 feet). So, the range here is all over the place, from well below average to well above average. One year right at the average, four below, and four above.

In other words, there's nothing you can take away from that one piece of data. Regardless, you always have to be careful when trying to make these sorts of correlations and predictions. Even the Climate Prediction Center's forecasts deal in probabilities, not what we call "deterministic" forecasts. So it's very easy to read too much into any conclusion you might reach from this sort of analysis.

I'll discuss that further in the coming weeks.

Blitz Playoff Forecast - 10.30.09

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 08:27:43 -0500

Game of the Week: Muskegon at Kenowa Hills.

Expect a soggy daytime, followed by a gradual drying trend through the evening. Regardless, it will be very windy tonight, with gusts out of the southwest likely in the 30-40 mph range.

Good luck to all the area teams in the district semifinals this weekend!

Movies? Really?

Mon, 26 Oct 2009 06:56:14 -0500

Story from the Associated Press last week:

---------------------------------------

Weather Channel to air movies for first time

By DAVID BAUDER
AP Television Writer

NEW YORK (AP) -- The Weather Channel plans to show movies for the first time in its 27-year history and it's easy to guess which one is leading off.

"The Perfect Storm," of course.

The George Clooney and Mark Wahlberg movie about a horrific storm off the New England coast will air on Oct. 30, the 18th anniversary of the actual storm. Network executives had been thinking about adding movies, and the timing proved too good to pass up, said Geoffrey Darby, the network's chief programmer.

The network in recent years gradually slipped in longer programming, including a morning show hosted by Al Roker, to complement its constantly rotating forecasts.

"The Perfect Storm" begins a four-week period in which The Weather Channel will try some Friday night movies.

The films are either weather-themed or have plots in which weather plays a key role, Darby said. Meteorologist Jennifer Carfagno will host movie night and offer commentary.

Other movies include the documentary "March of the Penguins," the thriller "Deep Blue Sea" and "Misery," for which Kathy Bates won an Academy Award.

The weather angle is pretty clear in "The Perfect Storm," but "Misery"? Darby noted the nightmare endured by James Caan's character begins with a blinding snowstorm.

For The Weather Channel, the risk lies in alienating its regular weather-obsessed viewers, who tune in for news of high pressure systems rather than high drama. The potential reward is that new fans will tune in, and they'll stay on the station for a longer period, pleasing advertisers.

Darby said most viewers on Friday night aren't interested in much more than the weekend forecast, and that will be updated on the screen six times an hour.

"It's a way to respond to at least a significant portion of our audience that says, `Let's expand the definition of weather,'" he said.

The idea predates NBC Universal's purchase of The Weather Channel, Darby said. None of the first four movies are distributed by NBC Universal.

------------------------------------------------

It's official... the Weather Channel has gone the way of MTV, which has long since given up on playing music videos. It makes sense from a business perspective to keep people watching longer than the usual 5-10 minutes for the forecast (which is also why they overhype any significant weather event as well). But it continues to erode the original core mission of the Weather Channel, which was providing a 24/7 place to turn for a national or local forecast.

I shouldn't complain, since they're a competitor (in theory), but it's another sign of the changing media landscape. It's funny that even as outlets become more fragmented, there still seem to be few truly original ideas out there. I can see a scenario a few months down the road where The Weather Channel introduces "TWC2," which might on occasion still show a weather forecast!

Blitz Forecast 10.23.09

Fri, 23 Oct 2009 09:12:53 -0500

Steadier, heavier rain through the morning hours will gradually diminish this afternoon to just light rain and/or drizzle by evening. The football fields will obviously be quite wet across the area since most locations will see one inch or more of rain prior to game time. Again, take rain gear and an umbrella, but the trend will be for the rain to taper off considerably by late afternoon/evening. Since the low pressure area creating this weather is tracking a little further to the west, most of us should get in to a little warmer air by early evening. Many locations should see temps rise into the mid 50s by kickoff time, then slowly fall to around 50 by midnight. Today will also be a windy day with southeasterly winds at 15-30 mph during the day. During the games, winds will become southwesterly at about 10-20 mph. So bundle up and stay dry as well as warm.

Here is the Timeline for our Blitz Game of the Week...Grand Haven at East Kentwood!

NOAA Winter Outlook

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 07:33:34 -0500

The Climate Prediction Center (an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) released its winter outlook on Thursday.

As a whole, it heavily reflects what is considered typical of an El Nino pattern in the winter.

Here are the graphic products:

As you can see, Michigan is on the edge of a warmer and drier forecast. But, don't get too excited about it yet. This type of pattern would be indicative of a STRENGTHENING El Nino. While that is how the current forecast models play out through the winter right now, the forecast could easily flip if the el Nino turns out to be weaker than expected. After all, we've been in a weak El Nino pattern for the last few months, and we know how that has turned out!

Also, the CPC itself admits that they've left the North Atlantic Oscillation mostly out of the forecast because of low predictibility. The NAO is a pressure pattern that can dictate temperatures in the Northeast, especially in the winter. It can have an even more pronounced effect than El Nino.

So, as I've discussed before, I'm not going to put too much stock into ANY seasonal long-range forecast. It can be a matter of a couple hundred miles in the prevailing storm track between warm and wet, cold and snowy, and cold and dry.

Blitz Forecast 10.16.09

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 06:19:45 -0500

This time of year, you take what you can get in the weather department. As such, it's not looking like a terrible night for high school football. We'll stay dry, with a few breaks in the clouds, but with temperatures that will hang around 40 or even drop into the 30s during the evening.

Game of the Week forecast... I'll be the weather department representative at the pregame show at East Grand Rapids, so come say hi!

Blitz Forecast - 10.09.09

Fri, 09 Oct 2009 06:10:16 -0500

Take a towel with you to high school football games tonight, as bleachers will likely still be wet. But, the good news is that we will be in the process of drying out West Michigan as we head into this evening. Areas around Muskegon are likely to see the rain ending first, with the Battle Creek area likely to hold on to a few showers into the evening.

Blitz Game of the Week timeline:

Blitz Forecast 10.02.09

Fri, 02 Oct 2009 06:56:32 -0500

It's a rainy morning around West Michigan, and we'll continue with damp conditions much of the day. However, we'll see a break in the rain that should last into mid-afternoon or so. Still, scattered light rain showers are likely to return at that point and continue off and on through the night.

The Blitz timeline for tonight's Game of the Week at Allendale:

Jon Rants about Long-Range Forecasts

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 07:48:28 -0500

This story appeared in a shortened form on FOX 17 Morning News Wednesday:

"Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Northeast may have the coldest winter in a decade because of a weak El Nino, a warming current in the Pacific Ocean, according to Matt Rogers, a forecaster at Commodity Weather Group.

"Weak El Ninos are notorious for cold and snowy weather on the Eastern seaboard," Rogers said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Washington. "About 70 percent to 75 percent of the time a weak El Nino will deliver the goods in terms of above-normal heating demand and cold weather. It's pretty good odds."

Warming in the Pacific often means fewer Atlantic hurricanes and higher temperatures in the U.S. Northeast during January, February and March, according to the National Weather Service. El Nino occurs every two to five years, on average, and lasts about 12 months, according to the service.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long positions, or bets prices will rise, in New York heating oil futures in the week ended Sep. 22, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data Sept. 25.

"It could be one of the coldest winters, or the coldest, winter of the decade," Rogers said.

U.S. inventories of distillate fuels, which include heating oil, are at their highest since January 1983, the U.S. Energy Department said Sept. 23. Stockpiles of 170.8 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 18 are 28 percent above the five-year average.

Heating oil for October delivery rose 1.38 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at $1.6909 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange."

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OK, let's address the actual weather part of the story first. Yes, it's true that weak El Ninos have a tendency to bring the northern and eastern parts of the country cold and snowy weather (as opposed to stronger El Ninos which generally lead to warmer winter weather- think 1983-84). It's also not uncommon to have those conditions misforecast by the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (the very cold winter of 2001 comes to mind for our area, when most expected a mild winter)... and the CPC is currently forecasting a better chance of warmer than average temperatures for the northern tier of the U.S.:

However, there's a lot more at work here that has me upset. First, the story indicates the connection between long-range weather forecasts and energy futures. Forecasts for a cold winter will drive up heating prices. Notice that the information from the National Weather Service details warmer temperatures in the Northeast -- but the story focuses on one meteorologist who works for a private weather firm forecasting colder temperatures. What's the firm's name? Commodity Weather Group. Now make the connection -- do you think a meteorologist for "Commodity Weather Group" would have an interest in creating higher commodity prices via a forecast that contradicts the official NWS forecast? I do. But as usual, the media jumps all over it because of the hype factor of "COLDEST WINTER IN A DECADE!!!" And we all end up paying more to run the furnace.

This isn't the first time this has happened recently. A couple of years ago, a forecaster at Accuweather announced that the Northeast U.S. was "overdue" to be hit by a major hurricane. There was no indication that it would actually happen, but you'd have thought that it was a sure thing based on the media attention that comment received. And, of course, Accuweather loved the publicity it got as a result.

Regardless of the story, it always ends up in the newspaper or on national TV as "forecasters say..." or "meteorologists say...", even if it's only one clown making the prediction. Then, people ask me about it constantly, or worse, blame me when it ends up being wrong.

I'll wait until another day to rant specifically about the whole local winter forecast scam, but I'll leave you with this idea to use when you watch stories about weather: the amount you should believe a forecast is inversely proportional to both the drama (how unusual the forecast is) and the distance (how far into the future the forecast is for). That even goes for my own forecasts!

Thoughts? Arguments? Feel free to post your own rant below, or e-mail me.

This ends today's rant; we now return you to your regularly scheduled Wednesday.

Why West Michigan Should Host 2016 Olympics

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 07:22:07 -0500

On FOX 17 Morning News Wednesday, we explored some reasons that West Michigan, not Chicago, should host the 2016 Summer Olympics. Some of the best (and not-so-best) suggestions:

- Klompen Dancing Marathon
- Usain Bolt sprints in wooden shoes
- Lake Michigan swimming challenge: Michael Phelps vs. Jim Dreyer
- Long jumping replaced by Pier Jumping
- Olympic Village menu: Yesterdogs, Fifth Third Burgers, Olive Burgers, Wet Burritos, Sweetwater's Donuts, and more. Welcome to America!
- Demonstration sport: Office chair racing
- Area developers looking for an excuse to build a velodrome

Any other suggestions? Comment below, or e-mail me.